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THE BOTTOM LINE - For decades, one assumption has defined Los Angeles politics: organized labor decides who wins.
That assumption is now breaking, and the 2026 mayor’s race may finally prove it.
Labor unions have long been treated as political kingmakers, wielding money, manpower, and influence to shape outcomes. Their role has been portrayed as decisive, even untouchable. But this year, reality is catching up with the narrative.
The truth is simple: labor’s power is no longer absolute, and its unity is beginning to fracture.
Labor remains central to Los Angeles civic life. It organizes workers, mobilizes voters, and amplifies the voices of immigrant and working-class communities. For decades, it has been one of the city’s most consistent political forces.
But influence is not control.
In 2022, Rick Caruso secured the endorsement of the Police Protective League and spent more than $100 million of his own money. He still lost to Karen Bass by double digits.
If that is political power, it is far from decisive.
Today, the real story is not labor’s strength it is labor’s division.
Key unions that once supported Bass are no longer fully aligned with her. Trade groups such as carpenters and electrical workers have grown frustrated with decisions on housing policy, labor rules, and leadership choices at the Department of Water and Power.
This is more than policy disagreement. It reflects a deeper problem: a growing belief among labor leaders that they have been sidelined or taken for granted.
In politics, that perception can be more damaging than outright opposition.
Bass is not without support. The Los Angeles County Federation of Labor remains firmly behind her, and many public sector unions are expected to stay loyal. Influential leaders, including State Sen. María Elena Durazo, continue to stand with the mayor.
But the labor movement is not monolithic.
The federation does not command total loyalty, and as divisions widen, the idea of labor as a unified political force becomes harder to sustain.
That creates an opening.
Councilwoman Nithya Raman’s entry into the race has unsettled the political establishment. Her alignment with housing and social justice movements makes her a natural alternative for segments of labor, particularly those frustrated with the status quo.
The sharp attacks from labor leadership against Raman reveal more than strategy they signal concern. When political machines feel pressure, they respond forcefully.
This race is not settled.
For Bass, the stakes are real. She has never been a dominant fundraiser and now risks losing portions of the labor coalition that once fueled her campaign. In a competitive race, that loss of support could matter.
Incumbency still provides advantages: name recognition, institutional backing, and a record to defend. Bass will point to reductions in homelessness, lower crime rates, and her opposition to federal policies affecting Los Angeles.
But elections are not won on record alone. They are won on energy, coalition strength, and momentum.
Right now, labor’s energy is divided.
And that division reflects a broader shift in Los Angeles politics.
Voters are less predictable. Coalitions are more fluid. Long-standing assumptions about power are being tested in real time.
The idea that labor can simply deliver an election is fading.
This mayor’s race is about more than candidates.
It is a test of whether organized labor remains the dominant force in Los Angeles politics or whether it has become just one player in a more competitive and uncertain landscape.
(Mihran Kalaydjian is a seasoned public affairs and government relations professional with more than twenty years of experience in legislative affairs, public policy, community relations, and strategic communications. A respected civic leader and education advocate, he has spearheaded numerous academic and community initiatives, shaping dialogue and driving reform in local and regional political forums. His career reflects a steadfast commitment to transparency, accountability, and public service across Los Angeles and beyond.)
