Comments
GELFAND’S WORLD - MAGA now means Make Algae Great Again. I’m told that devoted people seeking salvation are making pilgrimages to Washington D.C. looking for sacred images within the green murky shoals. So far, one lucky penitent has seen Elmo, and another claims to have seen Lionel Messi.
We are, of course, talking about the Reflecting Pool on the National Mall – you know, the one that the Trump administration just finished fixing up. They claim that giving the job to one of Trump’s Floridian neighbors on a no-bid contract had nothing to do with conflict of interest or nepotism. Sure.
Like so much of what this administration does, it was a bad job done ineptly and corruptly. In this sense, all that green algae is a symbol of what this president cannot do. The problem is that the pool represents a lot more than poorly managed swimming pools. There are many important things that the federal government should be doing well, but this administration got off to a bad start when Trump put control into the hands of Elon Musk, who then did everything he could do to eviscerate federal agencies that were even vaguely perceived to be doing something in the public good.
Elon Musk was just one Trump appointee who lacked competence and even lacked moral compass. But what he did wasn’t even the worst of what Trump appointees are doing on a daily basis.
We have more to worry about in terms of aviation safety, protecting the public health, and of course war planning. You know, things like understanding that bombing Iran would inevitably lead to an increase in oil prices and inflation.
This whole line of thinking leads to another bit of speculation that is not idle at all, but some may consider to be a bit early.
But it’s not too early.
Let’s summarize the current condition of our republic. We begin by recognizing that a lot of the present difficulties stem from the fact that Trump does not appoint people of competence and integrity to high positions in his government. Cabinet appointments have been a bad joke, consisting of people whose sole qualification is slavish loyalty. Since loyalty to a chronic lier and thief pretty much contradicts the idea of integrity, there is a failure mode right there. But notice that such intellectual dishonesty within these servants is also inconsistent with the mental function that is part of being serious about serious matters. They have become incapable of critical thought. Combine that with Trump’s obvious propensity to fall in love with his own foolish ideas – tariffs anyone? – along with the unwritten requirement that Trump appointees defend even his silliest and most destructive ideas, and we have the situation this country is in.
And that leads to the following question – some will consider it a bit premature, but I suspect it is not – and something that I expect will get a lot of play in the next few months: How are things going to change, if and when Trump is no longer a functioning president and J.D. Vance takes over?
The current chief executive does not have to keel over dead from a lifetime of over-indulging; he could suffer any number of things that people in their ninth decade have increased risk of incurring. He could show increased mental disability that forces the cabinet and Vice President to invoke the 25th Amendment. Non of us has a crystal ball, but those late night trips to Walter Reed are beginning to look like a pattern.
Whatever the event or the process, we might be looking at a J.D. Vance presidency or acting-presidency within the next year or so. What to expect is a big question that deserves our speculating. Let’s give it a moment’s thought.
I’m going to go out on a limb with my fellow liberals here and say that Vance is likely to replace a whole lot of Trump appointees, and the replacements will be better than the current occupants. Yes, I know I have to define “better” to make this argument work, but the logic dictates exactly this conclusion.
We might begin by reminding ourselves of one other reason why the current cabinet ministers and other Trump appointees are so bad. And it’s not just that Trump has a seriously neurotic need for loyalty. That part is true (and obvious) but it is not the only reason.
The other reason is that Trump is truly not very bright, and he falls in love with strange ideas and approaches that often don’t make sense. How else could you explain his desire to add high tariffs on foreign imports. People have tried to explain the reasons for why he is a sucker for the idea of tariffs, but none of them ultimately holds water.
Don’t let’s digress too much here. It’s just that you might want to consider how incredibly wrong and ignorant and just plain stupid Donald Trump is when it comes to important topics like macro economics. The immediate result of this ignorance is the fight over how the Federal Reserve does its job, and even whether the Fed will be allowed to do its job at all.
Another example of presidential stupidity: It is hard to imagine how any critical thinker can continue to deny the likelihood that global warming is here and that it is caused by our creation of excess carbon dioxide. It would be equally irrational to declare that dinosaurs never existed.
One last bad example. Back when we were having catastrophic fires in California, Trump criticized our level of forest maintenance, as if some number or rakes and rakers would have prevented fires from getting out of control.
So how would a J.D. Vance presidency be different? I think there are two clear differences between Vance and Trump that would make for a very different presidency. The first is that Vance is considerably smarter. His academic career (Ohio State University followed by Yale Law School) makes this clear. His career in the Marine Corps shows a level of self-discipline that Trump lacks. And, however my liberal friends may agree or disagree, I think that Vance lacks Trump’s ability to lie brazenly without any sense of shame. In short, Vance seems to have some footing in the real world, and this differentiates him from Trump.
This does not mean that I am looking forward to a Vance presidency. He is, in some ways, more dangerous than Donald Trump in the sense that he is more capable of developing a plan and sticking with it.
I expect that Vance, as acting president, would gradually replace Trump’s cabinet officers and might even limit some of the worst racism in cabinet and military appointments. It’s not guaranteed, but the potential is there. (This would be a relief to a lot of northern Republican office holders.)
The most predictable element of a Vance presidency would be appointments of people who have demonstrated competence. It would be a great relief to have somebody in charge of medical research who isn’t an out-and-out nutcase. It would be useful not only to us but to the whole world if we were to have a Secretary of Defense who has both a mind and self-control.
Thinking about the next phase of the Trump-Vance administration is not just an exercise in wishful thinking. It ought also to be part of Democratic Party strategic thinking. What will the opposition do to stimulate votes for Democrats if Trump is not still around as the punching bag?
Addendum: The World Cup continues
The U.S. team wrapped up its first place finish in the group round by watching Paraguay defeat Turkey. That seemingly innocuous result made it mathematically impossible for any other team to finish above the U.S., no matter how unlikely the remaining game results could be. The U.S. takes on Turkey here in Los Angeles on Thursday. The result is meaningless, but I suspect that the U.S. coaching staff would like to see a win, if nothing else to maintain a winning spirit, and also because the U.S. has never won all its games in the group stage. This will lead to the Group of 32, where the U.S. will get to face a third place finisher from one of several groups. This is certainly an advantage, and a win at that level would lead to (what else?) the Group of 16. And that’s where things are getting interesting, because the leader of the group containing Belgium is the opponent in that game, but Belgium is not having a good tournament so far. So can we predict a game between the U.S. and Egypt? It’s not clear, but it’s getting to be interesting. And while these lower level rivalries develop, Argentina, Germany, England, and a very few others continue to progress. And at the moment of this writing, Messi has now scored 5 goals in less than 2 full games.
(Bob Gelfand writes on science, culture, and politics for CityWatch. He can be reached at [email protected])
