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ONE MAN’S OPINION - As part of the 1940 armistice imposed on France following the collapse of its forces fighting the German Army, a rump state was created in the unoccupied regions of the defeated nation. It was named Régime de Vichy, better known to us as Vichy France.
Put a “T” in front of “rump” and it would describe the substance of the peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, the product of a backdoor bilateral negotiation between Putin and Trump.
Under the terms, Ukraine would effectively surrender any claim to sovereignty; a guarantee embedded in the Budapest Memorandum: signed December 5, 1994, where Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom agreed not to use military force or economic coercion against Ukraine.
It’s a tragedy that President Obama did not invoke this agreement when Russia invaded Crimea in 2014. The sanctions did nothing to deter Putin. It was as effective as the “red line” Obama set in Syria to discourage Assad from using chemical weapons. Assad crossed that line August 2013 with an attack against a village outside of Damascus. Obama’s reaction was all bluster. I’m sure his inaction emboldened Putin in Crimea.
According to reports, Trump has given Zelensky until Thanksgiving to sign.
Zelensky said “No” (without actually saying “No” so as not to trigger Trump).
And who can blame him?
Ukraine would have to officially recognize occupied and some unoccupied regions as belonging to Russia; limit the size of its army to 600,000, which would make it impossible to defend Ukraine’s extensive border against a massive attack; and prohibit any NATO units from entering the country.
Ukraine would also have to relinquish all its long-range missiles. These missiles have hurt Russia’s petroleum exports, the primary source for funding its invasion.
The only one in the Trump administration who appears to be concerned about the severity of the one-sided peace plan concessions is Secretary of State Marco Rubio. You might recall Rubio was the only official who did not pile on Zelensky during the contentious meeting at the White House in February. Trump and Vance viciously tag-teamed Zelensky for asserting the importance of continued US support for Ukraine.
Putin is obviously pleased with this peace plan. It checks all of his boxes.
How Trump will react if Zelensky remains firm in his opposition is unpredictable. His mercurial temperament could explode. He could walk away and cease all US involvement.
Trump must have made deals with Putin. One might say that is speculation, but given his transactional approach to governance, it is highly likely.
UPDATE: 11/22, Trump stated that the plan is not his final offer, but if Zelensky turns it down he could go "fight his little heart out."
(Paul Hatfield is a longtime community advocate and civic leader. He currently serves as a board member and past president of the Valley Village Residents Association and is a former Treasurer and board member of the Neighborhood Council Valley Village. A licensed CPA and experienced accounting consultant, Paul brings financial expertise to his community service. He regularly writes for CityWatch, focusing on city governance, fiscal accountability, and transparency in Los Angeles public affairs.)
