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WESTSIDE - There was a political "sucking sound" that hollowed out the race for Los Angeles Mayor as pollsters, consultants and other political operatives seeking a big payday on another Caruso run will not occur after all.
For Caruso, who spent over $100 million four years ago seemed primed for a second attempt as he made the rounds on Bill Maher and a trek to Texas to sit down with Joe Rogan only to pass on a second try for LA's top spot.
He even took a stand and funded the Democratic gerrymandering efforts to squeeze out another five congressional seats in wake of the Texas attempt to do the same last November.
With that proposition successful, it seemed Caruso was well on his way for another campaign.
What has changed?
For Caruso's infinite ability to write a big check and be the campaign's human ATM machine at the end of the day was not to be, as many are wondering why after months of hints and maybes he just passed?
Caruso, never a serious statewide threat for the Democratic nomination for governor was always more likely to seek a rematch with Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, especially after her fumbling of the 2025 wildfires that devastated the affluent neighborhood of the Pacific Palisades, Caruso's core base of political support.
For Bass handled the crisis in crisis, never really getting her footing while Caruso displayed strong organizational skills in building a foundation and timeline to ensure the process would be handled in a way that this potential mayor in waiting could display his leadership skills to voters and reverse the results of 2022.
So, with Caruso out, is there a candidacy that can fill this moderate, right-of-center void as the big beneficiary is clearly the incumbent?
Here’s what Rick Caruso’s decision not to run for Los Angeles mayor (or governor) in 2026 — effectively exiting the mayoral race before it began — best helps:
Caruso stepping out of contention makes the race much clearer for other candidates, especially moderates or challengers to the incumbent. Without a high‑profile, well‑funded contender like him in the mix, other hopefuls can define themselves more easily and try to consolidate support among voters who might otherwise have backed him.
One major effect of his exit is that institutional donors and party groups no longer have to hedge their bets on where to put money or endorsements. With Caruso gone, that capital can shift to other contenders earlier, which accelerates the emergence of frontrunners and campaign dynamics in both the mayor’s and governor’s races. Analysts see his withdrawal as signaling that his self‑funded gamble from 2022 isn’t repeatable, and that political “smart money” will look elsewhere for viable bets.
For incumbent Mayor Karen Bass, his absence removes a major potential challenger — especially one who in the past drew nearly 45 % of the vote against her — which can strengthen her re‑election prospects by reducing the number of credible opponents splitting the anti‑incumbent vote.
Without Caruso dominating media attention and fundraising, smaller or less well‑known candidates have a better chance to build name recognition and campaign infrastructure. Voters now will see a less Caruso‑centric race, which can broaden debate and introduce alternative policy ideas.
His exit also underscores how difficult it is for even very wealthy outsiders — especially those with a non‑traditional political background — to win in deeply blue Democratic California, and particularly Los Angeles for major offices like mayor or governor. That message could discourage other self‑funded candidates without strong party establishment support.
And did Team Caruso take a long hard look at the results in New York City where a Democratic Socialist won handily against a former governor and iconic pedigree like Andrew Cuomo? Cuomo's loss to NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani replicated his father's 1977 loss to Ed Koch in the Democratic Primary only to lose again in the general.
For the demographics have permanently shifted, and Los Angeles is a minority majority municipality with 47% of the residents being Hispanic while about 28% white.
Caruso’s decision to step out of the 2026 mayoral (and gubernatorial) contests best helps clarify and reshape the political landscape — strengthening the position of current candidates, guiding donor behavior, and opening room for new contenders.
But make no mistake; the real winner here is Bass, who can best control the narrative in a sprint to the June Primary unless she sees a threat from the left that can mobilize quickly with Caruso now out?
While money is the milk of politics and campaigns, messaging matters and it seems Caruso never had his footing in 2022 and was struggling again with the same despite the missteps of the incumbent.
(Nick Antonicello is a thirty-three-year resident of Venice who is covering the 2026 race for Mayor of Los Angeles. Have a take or a tip? E-mail him at [email protected] )
