PRIMARY POSTSCRIPT--It is no surprise that Assembly Member Patty Lopez advanced to the finals in the 39th AD. More on that later in the article.
Henry Stern’s path to the general election in the 27th Senate District was less certain.
There was no doubt that Republican Steve Fazio would make it, but most figured a Democrat would come in second due to the large field of Democratic candidates carving up the vote. Instead, he surprised by finishing first with 31.2% of the ballots cast, almost a full point ahead of Fazio and well ahead of his chief Democratic challenger, Janice Kamenir-Reznik. **
Reznik held an advantage over Stern early in the evening when absentee ballots weighed heavily.
Two key endorsements abandoned Stern for Kamenir-Reznik: former County Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky and current Supervisor Sheila Kuehl. Despite those two big name defections, Stern prevailed and appears to have a lock on winning the general. Fazio’s support is unlikely to grow significantly to where he can give Stern a run for his money. Supporters of the other candidates are likely to line up behind Stern, who is a senior staff member of Fran Pavley, the termed-out, current office holder.
The race makes you wonder about the value of endorsements from individuals
I had the pleasure of discussing a number of issues with Stern a few weeks ago. He is someone who appears to be receptive, especially on issues with a direct impact locally.
Patty Lopez (photo above left), the Rocky of local politicians, appears to face a similar challenge to the one which confronted her back in 2014. Her opponent, Raul Bocanegra, a favorite of the establishment, with the backing of the State Democratic Party, and who outspent Lopez 10 to 1, finished the night with 45% of the vote. Lopez garnered 27%.
With that kind of spending and structural advantage, earning measurably less than a majority is unimpressive and points to vulnerability in the general for Bocanegra. He had almost 63% of the vote in the 2014 primary before falling to the Lopez’ indomitable grassroots push in the general, when he ran as the incumbent. He starts off in a weaker position this time around.
If Lopez can attract support from the pool of voters who supported other fine candidates in the primary, then Bocanegra could be in for a long night on November 8. A loss would all but destroy his aspirations to regain a seat anywhere. It is hard to raise money from deep pockets when you have burned through a small fortune in back-to-back losing efforts.
**Note: The percentage of votes received by Stern as reported above reflect only LA County. The District includes a portion of Ventura County. Fazio finished with 37.5% and Stern with 26.5%. Both will still advance to the general election where Stern is likely to win, as many of those who voted for other Democratic candidates in the primary will tend to support him.
(Paul Hatfield is a CPA and serves as President of the Valley Village Homeowners Association. He blogs at Village to Village and contributes to CityWatch. The views presented are those of Mr. Hatfield and his alone and do not represent the opinions of Valley Village Homeowners Association or CityWatch. He can be reached at: [email protected].)