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THE BOTTOM LINE - Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass may be entering the 2026 mayoral race on far shakier political ground than many expected. A new poll suggests that voter confidence in City Hall is eroding, approval ratings remain deeply underwater, and a growing number of Angelenos are searching for an alternative. In that unsettled political environment, a challenger is beginning to emerge and the race for City Hall may be far more competitive than the incumbent once hoped.
A recent survey conducted by Emerson College Polling in partnership with Inside California Politics paints a picture of a city electorate that is far from settled about the direction of Los Angeles. While Bass technically leads the potential field with 20 percent support, the far more telling statistic is that 51 percent of voters say they remain undecided.
For an incumbent preparing to run for another term, such numbers are rarely reassuring. In political terms, they signal uncertainty and potentially vulnerability.
Even more troubling for the mayor are her approval ratings. According to the poll, just 24 percent of Angelenos say they approve of the job Bass is doing, while 47 percent say they disapprove. That gap places the incumbent in politically dangerous territory at a time when the city continues to grapple with some of its most difficult and visible challenges.
From the ongoing homelessness crisis to rising housing costs, concerns over public safety, and worsening traffic congestion, many residents appear increasingly impatient with the pace of change. While the Bass administration has launched initiatives to address several of these issues, the reality on the ground has left many voters unconvinced that the city is moving fast enough to meet the moment.
That frustration is beginning to reshape the early contours of the mayoral race.
Among the potential challengers tested in the survey, Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman is emerging as one of the most serious alternatives to the incumbent mayor. Although the numbers remain early and fluid, Raman’s position in the poll suggests she may be gaining traction among voters who are open to a different direction for the city.
Former reality television personality Spencer Pratt registered 10 percent support, slightly ahead of Raman’s 9 percent. Yet in political terms, Raman stands out as the most credible elected challenger currently appearing in early polling, with the potential to consolidate voters looking for change.
With more than half of voters still undecided, the race remains wide open.
Political momentum in Los Angeles can shift quickly once campaigns begin to take shape. Fundraising, endorsements, coalition building, and grassroots organizing will all play decisive roles in determining which candidates ultimately break through with voters. In a city as politically diverse as Los Angeles, turnout patterns across regions such as the San Fernando Valley, the Westside, and Central Los Angeles could significantly influence the outcome.
The structure of California’s election system also adds unpredictability to the race. Under the state’s top-two primary system, the two candidates receiving the highest number of votes advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation. In crowded races, that structure can produce unexpected results and incumbents who appear comfortable early on can suddenly find themselves in competitive runoffs.
In other words, early leads do not always translate into electoral security.
The Emerson survey also tested early sentiment in California’s 2026 gubernatorial race. Representative Eric Swalwell currently leads the crowded field with 17 percent support, followed by commentator Steve Hilton with 13 percent, while businessman Tom Steyer and Chad Bianco each received approximately 11 percent.
Representative Katie Porter drew 8 percent, while a large share of voters in that race also remain undecided.
The poll, conducted March 7–9 among 1,000 California voters, offers only an early snapshot of voter sentiment. Yet the message emerging from the numbers is difficult to ignore.
The race for Los Angeles City Hall appears far more fluid than many political observers expected. Voters remain uncertain, the incumbent’s approval ratings are underwater, and the field of challengers is still taking shape.
For now, one thing is clear: Los Angeles voters appear restless.
And if those sentiments continue to grow, Mayor Bass may soon find herself not merely defending her record but fighting to hold onto City Hall against a challenger increasingly positioned to capitalize on the city’s political discontent.
(Mihran Kalaydjian is a seasoned public affairs and government relations professional with more than twenty years of experience in legislative affairs, public policy, community relations, and strategic communications. A respected civic leader and education advocate, he has spearheaded numerous academic and community initiatives, shaping dialogue and driving reform in local and regional political forums. His career reflects a steadfast commitment to transparency, accountability, and public service across Los Angeles and beyond.)
