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GELFAND’S WORLD - It's Back in the USSR for us, but instead of the Beatles' song, it's Donald Trump's tantrum over the latest job creation numbers. He doesn't like them, so they must be fake, or the result of a conspiracy. So instead of thinking about how to fix a real problem, Trump chooses to fire the messenger and bring in someone who will give him better looking numbers. I'm reminded of the old Soviet Union, particularly under Stalin, which could erase whole chapters of its history on demand.
Donald Trump's decision to fire the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics demonstrates what many of us have been thinking but were still too polite to say directly: He has little sense of reality. Everything is personal and political to him, and subject to his own wishful thinking. In a press conference the other day, he explained that the BLS announced great numbers for Biden going into the election but now have given him poor numbers. There is of course a simple explanation: We had pretty good job growth throughout the past two administrations except during the worst of the Covid crisis, but now, in response to Trump's game playing on tariffs, American businesses are taking steps to protect themselves against an era of craziness. It's no surprise that businesses small and large are holding off from hiring anybody at this moment. They simply don't know how long the uncertainty over pricing (what they pay in the wholesale market for what they sell and what goes into their manufactured products) will continue.
They do not know what the final cost for any product is going to be, because they don't know how tariffs on Chinese and European goods are going to end up.
That's the reality. But as the current situation demonstrates, Donald Trump doesn't seem to be able to distinguish objective reality -- the market is showing its skittishness by refusing to hire more people -- and instead treats a bad report as some kind of political conspiracy aimed at him. This analysis is consistent with what we have seen on other topics: The Trump administration continues to engage in denial about global warming and increasingly about medical policy and vaccination.
Thus, a poor jobs report is treated as merely a political attack, and he therefore treats it as something that is subject to his own political adventuring. Don't like the official number? Just get rid of the person who announced it.
Here is the part that Trump is missing: That number is an important element in determining economic policy, in the sense of following economic principles that have been developed, tested, and exercised since the Great Depression.
It's a gear in the great machine and an ingredient in the recipe.
As much as consumers may find it a difficulty, there is a reason that the Federal Reserve sets the interest rate at its particular level. There is a reason that the federal government occasionally injects money into the economy when there is danger of a downturn. The reaction by business to the current administration is uncomfortable but predictable. To quote from David J. Lynch and Abha Bhattarai in the Washington Post:
"That adjustment grew even tougher on Friday, when the president ordered the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics fired over claims that she had tampered with employment figures to hurt him politically, without presenting evidence.
"Even as the costs of his policies became more apparent, the action ignited worries that Trump’s volatile temperament could cause additional economic harm by undermining market confidence in the government data that investors, business executives and policymakers require to make decisions."
And, admittedly, the Federal Reserve and the Bureau of Labor Statistics are working with imperfect data and imperfect calculations using numbers that are subject to revision as more data arrives. But that is just to say that taking a scientific approach to serious questions is hard work and sometimes gives less than perfect results. It does not mean that the data and the resultant decisions are merely wishful thinking or parts of the political propaganda machine and therefore subject to modification based on political expedience.
In the old days, that approach was the road to hyperinflation. Governments would print money to satisfy immediate political demands and as things spiraled out of control, inflation would jump to 100% per year or more.
Republicans in the congress have the right and the power to put a stop to this insanity. If they don't, the rest of us will suffer the consequences.
Addendum
In the old days, people who were on the losing side of American elections could at least think hopefully about a comeback in the next election. This has been a central wish for the Democratic and liberal voters during the current disaster. All of a sudden, there is a move on the part of Trump and Texas to further gerrymander that state so that the Republicans will get even more members in the House of Representatives. This is a pretty serious violation of the idea of a republican form of government (the words stated explicitly in the Constitution) in the sense that American citizens get to select the people who will represent them by voting. By engaging in this coup attempt, Trump might as well be saying, "I intend to become a dictator."
I wonder where the Democratic leaders are. It should be made clear to Republicans of all stripes and their leadership that at some point, there will be turnabout. There is talk, but only talk, about California, New York, and Illinois doing their own redistricting.
How about this: These three Democratic Party controlled states announce that we will balance out any gerrymandering coming from the Republican side with redistricting of our own, starting with the southern gerrymandering that tipped the House in the 2024 elections. Make it clear that we are counting what they do and will respond. The central point should be that once we get started, we will beat them at their own game.
Perhaps the governors of Texas and California could hold a summit conference to talk things over before Texas does its own redistricting. There must be some town in Arizona or New Mexico that would be suitably placed. Truth or Consequences NM seems like a reasonable choice.
(Bob Gelfand writes on science, culture, and politics for CityWatch. He can be reached at [email protected])
