WESTSIDE - With Labor Day marking the home stretch for this year's municipal and legislative contests, we have three highly competitive races as incumbent LA Mayor Karen Bass is trying to hold-off Councilmember Nithya Raman (CD-4), Democratic Socialist Marissa Roy seeking to retain her lead versus a surging John McKinney, the LA County District Deputy Attorney while entrepreneur, educator and political consultant Brian Goldsmith continues to consolidate support versus West Hollywood Councilman John Erickson in this open seat contest to succeed the termed out incumbent Ben Allen of Santa Monica who is now running statewide for California Insurance Commissioner.
In the case of Bass, she is trying to avoid being denied reelection, which would be the first time since 2005 when then incumbent Mayor James Hahn lost a rematch to Councilman Antonio Villaraigosa, 59% to 42%.
When comparing her performance four years ago against billionaire businessman Rick Caruso, Bass received 43% in the runoff but 54% in the rematch with Caruso in the general. Fast forward, Bass received a paltry 34% in this year's June 2nd Primary, just 5 points ahead of Raman, a virtual unknown citywide.
In the case of Bass, who stumbled both governmentally and politically with her handling of the Palisades wildfires and homelessness still increasing on her watch despite her best efforts. Crime has plummeted significantly as homicides dropped 19% in Los Angeles, hitting the lowest annual count since 1966. Property crimes like burglaries dropped 27% citywide, with sharper declines in areas like the San Fernando Valley.
Having reviewed the primary results, the latest available campaign-finance reporting, endorsements, independent expenditures, available polling history and the geography/coalitions of each race it is fair to say at this point all three are in the margin of error with less than sixty days and counting.
With polling less than reliable at this juncture, some assumptions can be made regarding the status of all three races. Based on support in what I believe will be a lower-than-expected turnout, the race seems to "lean Bass" but is certainly in play for this at-risk incumbent.
Bass enters the runoff with a 5.3-point advantage, and Raman has a huge pool of voters to pursue, Pratt's 217,977 votes. That's the central question of this election, Where do the Pratt voters go and there isn't a legitimate poll yet telling us who they prefer.
Bass has the institutional machinery and organized labor support, but can it trump a change message by Raman?
The L.A. Times reports that Bass has more than 30 union endorsements, including the L.A. County Federation of Labor, Teamsters, ILWU and LAPD's Police Protective League.
Raman recently picked up Unite Here Local 11 and the Western States Regional Council of Carpenters. The Carpenters reportedly intend to put $3 million behind an independent expenditure effort supporting Raman. Unite Here says its primary operation knocked on more than 300,000 doors.
And Raman has the DSA-LA endorsement, which gives her a very motivated progressive volunteer base—but also gives Bass an obvious attack line about Raman being too far left.
And Raman has a potentially powerful message of being the candidate of change despite she too is a sitting incumbent which complicates further the messaging to voters. For Bass cannot simply campaign on being the incumbent. She has to persuade voters that Los Angeles is moving in the right direction.
If Bass can successfully persuade the Pratt vote and define Raman as simply too extreme while maintaining her labor support, the race could ultimately break in her favor. But if Raman can carve at the Pratt vote and make this a referendum on the Bass record while motivating young voters, we could have a horse race.
While some may claim Bass is ahead, there are far too many moving parts to say the incumbent is out of the woods just yet.
LA CITY ATTORNEY:
In a race that ousted the one-term incumbent Hydee Feldstein-Soto, Marissa Roy ran a strong grass roots primary effort that resulted in a first-place finish. But primaries and runoffs are two distinct races, and not to be interpreted as the second half of the same football game.
Roy won the primary comfortably so, with 43.1% to McKinney's 28.6% or 320,766 to 212,751. So nearly 29% of the primary vote went to candidates who aren't in the November election, and that's the pool McKinney needs.
The case for McKinney is distinct based on his clear contrast with Roy as a veteran law & order candidate and career prosecutor who has the endorsement of LA County DA Nathan Hochman and the Los Angeles Police Protective League (LAPPL).
And despite entering the contest so late, he was able to extract the PPL's endorsement from the incumbent that resulted in an estimated $3 million dollars into his coffers which resulted in an efficient, second place finish.
In the end, McKinney's overall message is much easier to tell in a city where homelessness and public safety are still at the top of the list of most voters.
And he demonstrated in the primary that outside groups can spend enormous sums on his behalf. The primary saw roughly $3.2 million in independent spending supporting McKinney, according to the Times.
In contrast, Roy has assembled an impressive coalition of progressives as well as traditional liberals such as LA County Supervisors Janice Hahn and Lindsey Horvath along with LA City Controller Kenneth Mejia.
For Roy's message is progressive left, branding herself as "The People's Lawyer," as she weaves a coalition of renters while calling for consumer protections from wage theft as well as opposing the Trump Administration in this heavily Democratic city despite being officially a non-partisan affair.
And will the lame duck incumbent Hydee Feldstein-Soto endorse, and could it have an impact?
It seems McKinney's campaign is surging, and that with clarity of message, this race looks like a toss-up at this juncture of the campaign. And this is the race most likely to move dramatically after the first major television/independent-expenditure advertising begins.
If public safety and homelessness are the dominant themes, advantage McKinney. If the race remains a referendum about working families and especially tenants coupled with a surge of progressive voter turnout, advantage Roy.
CA SENATE DISTRICT 24:
By far the most interesting of the three races is newcomer Brian Goldsmith of Beverly Hills versus West Hollywood Councilmember John Erickson where like the McKinney/Roy contest, we have another campaign that has a traditional Democratic moderate in Goldsmith versus the progressive, John Erickson in this affluent and coastal district to succeed the retiring Ben Allen, now running for California Insurance Commissioner.
Erickson finished first in the June 2nd Primary with 20.50% to Goldsmith's 18.28%. Two Republicans finished third and fourth in Rick Marshall and Kristina Irwin, while Dr. Sion Roy, a Santa Monica College member rounded out the top 5 finishers.
As of this writing, Roy remains uncommitted.
Erickson won a close, divided and fragmented primary, as there were ten candidates on the ballot, and Erickson was one of only three candidates that held public office. So, this was not a traditional head-to-head contest.
Despite being a first-time candidate, Goldsmith was able to raise some $2.5 million and will have a distinct money advantage in the fall runoff. In a race that is as much geographical as it is issue-oriented, both would be part of an overwhelming Democratic majority in that senate caucus in Sacramento, while losing Allen's seniority.
Most observers believe all the municipalities south of LAX lean Goldsmith while Erickson's support will come primarily from West Hollywood and more liberal LA neighborhoods such as Venice. The battleground will be communities like Santa Monica where Goldsmith just was endorsed by the local Democrats.
In contrast, Erickson's support is tied heavily to several major labor organizations and progressive groups that include the California Teachers Association, California Federation of Teachers, and the California Federation of Labor.
For this race has become a battle of the progressive, public employee union left, versus a moderate, establishment liberal affair, and the California Democratic Party did not endorse despite doing so in the June 2nd Primary.
But the issue of geography will ultimately decide who wins and who loses.
The district stretches across a politically diverse Westside/South Bay region, including communities such as Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, West Hollywood, Malibu, Manhattan Beach, Redondo Beach, and Torrance.
Goldsmith's ability to perform well in Santa Monica, and the more moderate-oriented portions of the district could offset Erickson's strength in West Hollywood and among progressive activists. And unlike Erickson, Goldsmith has demonstrated that he is willing to spend serious money to make that happen.
Goldsmith's money advantage, accumulation of national and local endorsements and ability to reach across the aisle to Republicans and undeclared voters in my estimation gives him the advantage at this juncture. If Erickson can solidify his support north of LAX, this too could become an extremely close encounter.
For these three races are laced with volatility with only one incumbent in Bass in an environment that has Democrats reinventing themselves from both the center and the left.
Bass has the strongest structural advantages, but Raman has enough progressive/labor energy to make this genuinely competitive.
And I would not treat any of the three races as safe.
What makes them compelling is that the candidate with the institutional/establishment advantage is facing a candidate with a highly motivated ideological/grassroots base.
Bass has the institutions. Goldsmith has the money and establishment network.
McKinney has the law-and-order credentials while Raman has the DSA and new union support; Roy is also DSA and the progressive choice while Erickson mirrors the same range of support.
Buckle up, these battles appear to be the most contentious and competitive on the November ballot.
(Nick Antonicello is a thirty-three-year resident of the Westside who is covering the numerous races on the November 3rd ballot with an emphasis on the judicial contests. A regular contributor to City Watch LA, he can be contacted via e-mail at [email protected])
