Two New Polls Show Dead Heat In Mayor's Race; But Are They Believable?

Today we have two new polls in the LA mayor's race, and both show Eric Garcetti and Wendy Greuel in a statistical dead heat.

The Garcetti campaign dismissed the numbers, while the Greuel campaign embraced them as a sign that she has "momentum" following her second-place finish in the March 5 primary. As is usually the case, there's ample reason to be skeptical about these numbers, so let's get into it.

The first poll is from Tulchin Research, and was conducted March 28-April 2 on behalf of Dennis Zine's campaign for city controller.

Garcetti 44

Greuel 43

The survey included 600 likely voters, with a 4% margin of error. There's nothing obviously strange about that result. But then look at the result in the controller's race:

Dennis Zine 48

Ron Galperin 24

Something's off there. Just last month, Galperin beat Zine 37.8% to 36.5% in the primary. Parke Skelton, Galperin's consultant, issued a memo last night calling the poll "preposterous on its face." (Read more here.) 

-cw

CityWatch

4-7-13