---

 ![](https://www.citywatchla.com/images/stories/Aug-2021/065m.png)

 [ LOS ANGELES ](https://www.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&id=312)

#  What happens if Newsom is recalled?

August 16 2021

Written by Dan Walters.

<a class="a2a_button_facebook"></a><a class="a2a_button_twitter"></a><a class="a2a_button_email"></a><a class="a2a_button_print"></a>[](https://www.addtoany.com/share)

RECALL WATCH-The recall election aimed at Gov. Gavin Newsom is close enough to ponder what would happen if, in fact, he is forced out of office a few weeks hence.

He almost certainly would be succeeded by one of the Republican would-be replacements – and at the moment, conservative/libertarian radio talk show host Larry Elder is leading in the polls.

If anything, Newsom’s strategy of asking supporters not to vote for any of the 46 would-be successors heightens Elder’s chances. However, if they do vote for someone, they would likely favor the least conservative of the Republican candidates, former [San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer.](https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/07/24/california-republican-party-creates-recall-endorsement-path-1388974)

A Newsom loss and a Faulconer win would be a double dose of bad news for the state’s Democratic Party because of all the Republican candidates, he would have the best chance of winning a full term in 2022.

The model for a Faulconer governorship could be Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, who became governor after Democrat Gray Davis was recalled in 2003. Initially, Schwarzenegger and Democratic legislators quarreled, but eventually they developed a workable rapport – much to the dismay of conservative Republicans – and Schwarzenegger easily won a full term in 2006.

Conversely, were Elder to top the field and succeed Newsom, the Capitol would be tied up in knots for more than a year as he attempted to impose his will and Democrats thwarted him at every turn. Governors have a lot of potential power, but using it depends on having a cooperative Legislature.

Newsom assumed vast authority to bend or ignore laws, when he declared an emergency to deal with COVID-19 – a performance that fueled the discontent that put his recall on the ballot. However, Newsom could do what he did only because the Legislature acceded, initially giving him a pot of money to spend as he saw fit and abandoning the Capitol for many weeks. His emergency decrees are still in effect, but the Legislature has constitutional authority to end them if it wishes.

As governor, Elder might attempt to emulate Newsom by wielding emergency powers, but the Legislature would immediately void them. He could try to replace top-level administration officials, but his appointees would have to win state Senate confirmation and it would certainly balk. He could veto Democrats’ bills, but they have enough legislative seats to override his vetoes.

Elder would submit a 2022-23 budget to the Legislature in January but with three-quarters of the Legislature, Democrats could enact their own budget and override Elder’s veto to put it in place.

Although Democrats are issuing [dire predictions of what Elder might do](https://calmatters.org/newsletters/2021/08/newsom-recall-target-larry-elder/) as governor, he really would have little power to do anything significant. With huge legislative majorities, Democrats could simply wait out the 15 months of an Elder governorship while gearing up to retake the office in 2022.

Elder would complain loudly, but ideologically he’s out of touch with blue California and would have won the governorship with votes from a tiny percentage of the state’s electorate, making him little more than an aberrational footnote to history.

While this would be happening, or not happening, Democratic politicians would be scrambling to become Elder’s successor, beginning with the June 7 top-two primary election. Newsom could run again and if he did, would probably come out on top in the primary. If he opted out, Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis would probably be the Democratic favorite but there are other ambitious politicians in the wings.

None of this comes to pass if Newsom beats the recall, which is still the most likely outcome. But it’s by no means a certainty.

*(Dan Walters has been a journalist for nearly 60 years, spending all but a few of those years working for California newspapers. He began his professional career in 1960, at age 16, at the Humboldt Times*.*) Prepped for CityWatch by Linda Abrams.*

 [ ![save up to 4000 on used evs](https://www.citywatchla.com/images/LADWP/dwp%20ev%20ad2.png) ](https://www.citywatchla.com/component/banners/click/107 "LA DWP | Save $4K, Green | Priority Ad")

 [ ![Donna Tryfman](https://www.citywatchla.com/images/ADS%20FOR%202026/Donna-Tryfman-Ad-Final-Complete-Border-White-Margin.png) ](https://www.citywatchla.com/component/banners/click/98 "Donna Tryfman - HS1-1")

 [ ![LA DWP #2 (Pay Your Bill Help)](https://www.citywatchla.com/images/LADWP/dwp%20level%20pay%205-7-25.jpg) ](https://www.citywatchla.com/component/banners/click/82 "LA DWP #2 (Pay Your Bill Help)")

 [ ![David DeJute Campaign](https://www.citywatchla.com/images/ADS%20FOR%202026/DejuteAd.png) ](https://www.citywatchla.com/component/banners/click/111 "David DeJute Campaign")

 [ ![Pay Water Bill Help](https://www.citywatchla.com/images/LADWP/dwp%20-%20cares-ad.jpg) ](https://www.citywatchla.com/component/banners/click/97 "Home - LA DWP #2 (Pay Water Bill Help)")

 [ ![Anna Reitano Vertical R. Col](https://www.citywatchla.com/images/ADS%20FOR%202026/reitano%20vertical%20rework.png) ](https://www.citywatchla.com/component/banners/click/112 "Anna Reitano Vertical R. Col")

 ![](https://www.citywatchla.com/images/banners/signup-for-cw.png)

## Get The News In Your Email Inbox Mondays &amp; Thursdays

 Phone

 ---

##  Featured CityWatch Stories

 [ ![](https://www.citywatchla.com/media/yootheme/cache/1c/072d-1c016ddf.jpg) ](https://www.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33319:when-the-last-minute-power-play-failed-sacramento-finally-ran-out-of-time&catid=375)

### [When the Last-Minute Power Play Failed: Sacramento Finally Ran Out of Time](https://www.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33319:when-the-last-minute-power-play-failed-sacramento-finally-ran-out-of-time&catid=375)

MY THOUGHTS - Gavin Newsom came to the final days of his final regular legislative session with one more major problem…

 [ ![](https://www.citywatchla.com/media/yootheme/cache/4d/073e-4dc54bff.jpg) ](https://www.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33336:may-day-international-workers-day-a-major-us-holiday-ignored-by-the-media&catid=398)

### [May Day/International Workers Day, a Major US Holiday Ignored By The Media](https://www.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33336:may-day-international-workers-day-a-major-us-holiday-ignored-by-the-media&catid=398)

PLANNING WATCH - Monday, September 7, 2026, was Labor Day, a holiday only celebrated in the United States and Canada as…

 [ ![](https://www.citywatchla.com/media/yootheme/cache/4e/072i-4e4914dd.jpg) ](https://www.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33314:olympics-la28s-drip-drip-drip-tactics-leave-los-angeles-holding-the-bag&catid=312)

### [Olympics: LA28’s Drip‑Drip‑Drip Tactics Leave Los Angeles Holding the Bag](https://www.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33314:olympics-la28s-drip-drip-drip-tactics-leave-los-angeles-holding-the-bag&catid=312)

NICK'S VIEW - Wonderland Los Angeles, a global symbol of dreams, myths, and possibilities, will take center stage at th…

 [ ![](https://www.citywatchla.com/media/yootheme/cache/e7/072b-e7b222d1.jpg) ](https://www.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33321:1-billion-later-congress-comes-knocking-los-angeles-homelessness-machine-faces-its-day-of-reckoning&catid=396)

### [$1 Billion Later, Congress Comes Knocking: Los Angeles’ Homelessness Machine Faces Its Day of Reckoning](https://www.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33321:1-billion-later-congress-comes-knocking-los-angeles-homelessness-machine-faces-its-day-of-reckoning&catid=396)

THE BOTTOM LINE - For years, Los Angeles taxpayers have been told the same thing about homelessness: Give us more money…

 [ ![](https://www.citywatchla.com/media/yootheme/cache/12/073d-1253ced3.jpg) ](https://www.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33338:quid-pro-no&catid=378)

### [QUID PRO NO](https://www.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33338:quid-pro-no&catid=378)

MY VIEW - Quid pro quo: Latin for “this for that.” English for “bribe.” In Assemblymember Schiavo-speak: quid pro no—“N…

---

##  [ LOS ANGELES ](https://www.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&id=312)

 [ ![](https://www.citywatchla.com/images/stories/Sept-2026/073l.jpg) ](https://www.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33335:red-light-fatalities-mount-while-city-hall-still-contemplates-its-navel&catid=312)### [Red-Light Fatalities Mount While City Hall Still Contemplates Its Navel](https://www.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33335:red-light-fatalities-mount-while-city-hall-still-contemplates-its-navel&catid=312)

 [ ![](https://www.citywatchla.com/images/stories/Sept-2026/071a5.jpg) ](https://www.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33295:7-ways-to-turn-la28-hype-into-lasting-youth-sports-growth&catid=312)### [7 Ways to Turn LA28 Hype Into Lasting Youth Sports Growth](https://www.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33295:7-ways-to-turn-la28-hype-into-lasting-youth-sports-growth&catid=312)

 [ ![](https://www.citywatchla.com/images/stories/Sept-2026/071a4.jpg) ](https://www.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33294:7-simple-ways-to-keep-pets-safe-this-halloween&catid=312)### [7 Simple Ways To Keep Pets Safe This Halloween](https://www.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33294:7-simple-ways-to-keep-pets-safe-this-halloween&catid=312)

 [ ![](https://www.citywatchla.com/images/stories/Sept-2026/071a.jpg) ](https://www.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33291:6-secrets-keeping-la-worksites-safe&catid=312)### [6 Secrets Keeping LA Worksites Safe](https://www.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33291:6-secrets-keeping-la-worksites-safe&catid=312)

 [ ![](https://www.citywatchla.com/images/stories/Aug-2026/070d.png) ](https://www.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33281:designed-to-fail&catid=312)### [Designed to Fail](https://www.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33281:designed-to-fail&catid=312)
<div data-id="1" 
	class="eb-inst eb-hide eb-emailform eb-1 eboxContentLocker"
	data-options='{"trigger":"onPageLoad","trigger_selector":"","delay":3000,"early_trigger":true,"scroll_depth":"percentage","scroll_depth_value":80,"firing_frequency":1,"reverse_scroll_close":true,"threshold":0,"close_out_viewport":false,"exit_timer":1000,"idle_time":10000,"close_on_esc":false,"animation_open":"slideInDown","animation_close":"fadeOutDown","animation_duration":400,"disable_page_scroll":true,"test_mode":false,"debug":false,"ga_tracking":true,"ga_tracking_id":"G-P16BQ7X1SW","ga_tracking_event_category":"EngageBox","ga_tracking_event_label":"Box #1 - Global Email Signup Form","auto_focus":false}'
	data-type='popup'
	>

	<button type="button" data-ebox-cmd="close" class="eb-close placement-outside" aria-label="Close">
	<img alt="close popup button" />
	<span aria-hidden="true">&times;</span>
</button>
	<div class="eb-dialog eb-formVer" role="dialog" aria-modal="true" id="dialog1" aria-label="dialog1">
		
		<button type="button" data-ebox-cmd="close" class="eb-close placement-inside" aria-label="Close">
	<img alt="close popup button" />
	<span aria-hidden="true">&times;</span>
</button>	
		<div class="eb-container">
						<div class="eb-content">
				
<form action="https://citywatchla.us2.list-manage.com/subscribe/post?u=34d69f33624fd058ee9b56516&amp;id=4bfa422f51&amp;f_id=00d6c2e1f0" class="eb" method="post" id="mcform-1" name="mcform-1" target="_blank">
			<div class="eb-form-header"><p><img src="/images/2023/06/be-a-city-watcher.png" alt="be a city watcher" width="350" height="97" loading="lazy" data-path="local-images:/2023/06/be-a-city-watcher.png"></p>
<p>Sign up to receive our special e-news blasts on Monday and Thursday evenings!</p></div>
	
					<div class="eb-field-row">

			
			
			
			<input class="eb-input" type="email" name="EMAIL"  placeholder="Email address"  id="EMAIL" value="" required>

			
		</div>
										
	<div class="eb-footer">
    	<button class="eb-btn" type="submit" name="subscribe" style="background-color:rgba(93, 183, 93, 1);color:rgba(255, 255, 255, 1)">
    		Sign up    	</button>
    </div>
</form>			</div>
		</div>
	</div>	
</div>
<div data-id="3" 
	class="eb-inst eb-hide eb-yesno eb-3 "
	data-options='{"trigger":"onScrollDepth","trigger_selector":"","delay":0,"early_trigger":false,"scroll_depth":"percentage","scroll_depth_value":80,"firing_frequency":2,"reverse_scroll_close":false,"threshold":0,"close_out_viewport":false,"exit_timer":1000,"idle_time":1000,"close_on_esc":false,"animation_open":"fadeInUp","animation_close":"fadeOut","animation_duration":300,"disable_page_scroll":false,"test_mode":false,"debug":false,"ga_tracking":true,"ga_tracking_id":"G-P16BQ7X1SW","ga_tracking_event_category":"EngageBox","ga_tracking_event_label":"Box #3 - Yes \/ No Donation Popup Box","auto_focus":false}'
	data-type='popup'
	>

	<button type="button" data-ebox-cmd="close" class="eb-close placement-outside" aria-label="Close">
	<img alt="close popup button" />
	<span aria-hidden="true">&times;</span>
</button>
	<div class="eb-dialog " role="dialog" aria-modal="true" id="dialog3" aria-label="dialog3">
		
		<button type="button" data-ebox-cmd="close" class="eb-close placement-inside" aria-label="Close">
	<img alt="close popup button" />
	<span aria-hidden="true">&times;</span>
</button>	
		<div class="eb-container">
						<div class="eb-content">
				
<div class="ebox-yes-no">
	<div class="ebox-yn-text">
		
		
		<div class="ebox-yn-headline" style="font-size:22px;color:#888888">
			<p>If you only give once a month, would you consider giving to CityWatch?</p>
<p>Your support fuels our mission to promote and facilitate civic engagement and neighborhood empowerment, and to hold area government and its politicians accountable.</p>
<p>Would you like to help? Even if you can only give $5, it will make a difference.</p>		</div>
			</div>
	
	<div class="ebox-ys-buttons" style="font-size: 16px;">
		
<a
					data-ebox-prevent="0"
		data-ebox-cmd="close"
				target="_self"
		href="https://www.citywatchla.com/donate"
		rel="noopener"
	
	
	
	
	class="ebox-ys-btn"
	style="background-color:#2ec664;color:#ffffff;min-width:100px">
	Yes
	</a>
<a
	
	
			data-ebox-cmd="close"
		href="#"
	
	
	class="ebox-ys-btn"
	style="background-color:#ef2345;color:#ffffff;min-width:100px">
	Not Right Now
	</a>	</div>

	</div>			</div>
		</div>
	</div>	
</div>